Automated Automobiles: Energy and Emissions Implications of Vehicle Automation Scenarios
Citation:
Brown, K. AND R. Dodder. Automated Automobiles: Energy and Emissions Implications of Vehicle Automation Scenarios. UNC Climate Change and Resilience Symposium, Chapel Hill, NC, April 12, 2019.
Impact/Purpose:
The potential for automated vehicles is likely to alter the transportation system in the United States, which has impacts for the atmosphere as vehicles are a significant source of emissions. This study evaluates different scenarios of the future U.S. in which most cars and trucks are automated. The study finds that emissions may increase or decrease with the adoption of automated vehicles. There is significant uncertainty in how automated vehicles may impact transportation, but this study helps evaluate some of the most important assumptions for further research. These results may be of interest to local governments looking to regulate automated vehicles.
Description:
Vehicle automation has the potential to drastically transform the transportation system, which would in turn have energy and environmental implications. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the effect of automation on travel demand and efficiency. We utilize the MARKet ALlocation or MARKAL model to examine four previously published scenarios of vehicle automation that consider different effects on vehicle efficiency and travel demands, and provide additional insights on fuel switching, upstream impacts, and emissions. Model results suggest that an increase in travel demands from automation may lead to greater fuel use and higher fuel prices, potentially increasing the market penetration of alternative-fuel vehicles. In contrast, dramatic efficiency improvements from automation could drive fuel prices lower, greatly reducing the competitiveness of alternative-fueled vehicles. Furthermore, vehicle technology shifts such as these could yield either positive or negative environmental impacts since vehicle technologies can have very different emission signatures. We also found system dynamics to be very important. For example, reductions in liquid fuel prices were shown to drive an uptake in their use.